Soilytix · pathogen-pressure profile · Iberian olive
Pressure on this asset is elevated relative to comparable Iberian SHD olive — concentrated in the central-south parcel block and tracking the spring moisture pattern more closely than chemistry.
This asset sits at the 78th percentile of comparable Iberian SHD olive assets in the Soilytix corpus (n=31 assets, 1,142 samples, protocol ≥ ppx-soil 2.0). The signal is real at the asset level; the more useful question — where on the asset, and why — is below.
01 · Parcel-level pressure across the 14 parcels sampled this round
Eight of the top-decile sample pressures fall inside the B–C central block (B-3, B-2, C-3). The eastern edge (D, E) is at or below cohort median.
B-3 carries the highest parcel index (84) and the steepest round-on-round rise (+11). It's the parcel to interrogate first.
cf. Migdalo P-14 trajectory — same shape, one year earlier
02 · Top pathogen contributors measurement, not yet interpretation
| Taxon | Contribution to index | Olive-relevant | vs R01 |
|---|---|---|---|
Verticillium wilt Verticillium dahliae |
yes | ▲ +6.3 | |
Anthracnose guild Colletotrichum godetiae / acutatum |
yes | ▲ +2.8 | |
Phytophthora root-rot guild Phytophthora spp. (4 OTUs) |
yes | – flat | |
Fusarium soilborne complex F. oxysporum / F. solani |
yes | ▲ +1.9 | |
Charcoal rot Macrophomina phaseolina |
yes | ▼ −0.9 | |
Pythium (background) ubiquitous OTUs, low effect |
background | – flat |
03 · Drivers of elevated pressure partial correlations · standardised β · not causal
Environment & structure
Chemistry & management
controlled for round and sample depth · airborne integration not in this model — see footnote ¹
04 · Where to push next three hypotheses, parcel-scoped, framed to be falsifiable
Densify Round 03 sampling across the B–C block to test whether the moisture–Verticillium coupling holds at sub-parcel scale.
Add a 20m grid on B-2, B-3, C-3 with one 30–60cm sub-sample per primary. Decision in one round.
Two-arm split on B-3: deficit-irrigation window against a Trichoderma-class soil amendment.
Working hypothesis: irrigation timing dominates the biological effect on this parcel. Co-design with the operator; outcome window one season.
Mark B-1 and D-1 in the operator's monitoring rhythm — chemistry drift resembles B-3 a year ago.
Trend marker, not action. Re-sample next round; no intervention yet.
Two-thirds of the index is carried by Verticillium + Anthracnose + Phytophthora. All three move with topsoil moisture; only Verticillium also covaries with management.
Pythium reads as a background signal — present, not informative. Worth keeping out of the headline.
unit of aggregation OK for Joao? guild vs species vs functional group — flag for the call